April 18, 2025
1992-2024: When Immigration was “Big and Beautiful”
Considering the “shock and awe” the U.S. immigration system has experienced since the new administration took over in January, I’m beginning to think that America’s immigration system was not really broken over the past 30 years. Having stepped away from immigration practice for over a decade, I was not subjected to daily viewing of “how the sausage was made”, except for an occasional report of an ICE raid on a meatpacking facility. This distance from immigration allowed me to recognize that the system was working quite well, at least in terms of meeting certain national goals, especially economic. Remember the pre-COVID stable dysfunction of immigration?
- Business immigration had its inefficiencies, but it functioned. Employers paid thousands in legal and filing fees—willingly—because they needed the talent. And after jumping through a slew of administrative hurdles, they usually got it.
- Highly educated workers, the best and brightest students, investors, and multinational managers found pathways into the system. It might take a few years, a few lawyers, and a few gray hairs—but the doors opened slowly behind long backlogs.
- Undocumented immigrants quietly filled labor shortages in industries that run on low wages and quiet compliance. They paid into Social Security, paid taxes, and kept the costs of goods low—all while being largely excluded from the public benefits they helped fund. They lived in the shadows. But it seemed to be a tradeoff (as compared to life in their home country) they were willing to accept.
- Policy makers and administrations got to use immigration as both a punching bag and a political carrot—talking about reform while relying on the status quo to quietly accept the beneficial results of systemic dysfunction.
In summary, if the goals of the U.S. immigration system were to aid in overall economic growth, provide labor flexibility and access to typically loyal highly-skilled professionals and low-skilled workers (loyal and always temporary with limited access to permanent residence or US citizenship), support Social Security and Medicare without government ever having to payout future benefits to many immigrant contributors, and enable legal status for certain professional and well-resourced investors, one might conclude the system was not broken at all.
The system did not deliver fairness. It did not function well nor consistently. But in its own awkward way, it delivered clear results: Economic growth. Labor flexibility. Political deniability.
Out of the Shadows and into the Light (of an Oncoming Train)
Recent events make the pre-2025 world of immigration dysfunction seem like it was less broken than many thought. I would argue that increasing visibility of the system led to an anti-immigrant buildup that has been unleashed this year. Not only did the undocumented population live in the shadows, so did the entire dysfunction of the system. Sure, everyone knew the undocumented were picking the fruit and cleaning the offices and hotels. Officials in Springfield, Ohio knew that many Haitians in lawful temporary status were coming to their city for employment opportunities (even if they weren’t really feasting on the neighbor’s cat). Those in university settings knew there was a significant foreign population in their midst. While there was always a significant level of anti-immigration sentiment, it wasn’t widespread enough to spur change. Perhaps to some extent, there may have been a lack of awareness of those Americans negatively affected by a system that worked for Wall Street, but not so much for Main Street.
But as the public started living in their own information bubbles, real and exaggerated negative impacts on Americans were emphasized and such stories were spread (i.e., “went viral”). Criminal acts of undocumented persons were highlighted. The strain on local resources in locations with a substantial number of new migrants were publicized, as was the impact on local residents who may have been forced to forego public resources. Perhaps there were other individualized negative impacts that affected more and more Americans: the low-skilled American worker whose wages were depressed and workplace expectations increased by an undocumented workforce that would never complain; the U.S. worker who responded to a PERM ad, applying for a position which was often times already filled; the talented American student who couldn’t get accepted by their university of choice while some percentage of foreign students had access. Hidden effects of a mostly opaque immigration system were brought out into the light, a light narrowly focused on the negatives of the system. And the results have been nothing less than a shitstorm.
Lady Liberty at Therapy
Bracing for Impact in the World of Business Immigration
The foundations of an admittedly dysfunctional immigration system are now at risk. So, in the more limited universe of business immigration, what does this mean for employers and law firms who had grown comfortable with the usual dysfunction of U.S. immigration?
- Removal of (presumably) criminal and illegally present individuals may impact employers in agriculture and low-skilled labor, though perhaps somewhat randomly. Employees of foreign nationals with denied extension applications (for H-1B, L-1, etc.) might also need to be prepared for employee unavailability and perhaps make contingency plans for their departure.
- Recission of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) and CHNV (Cuba, Haitian, Nicaragua, Venezuela) parolee status means some employees may be losing their employment authorization.
- F-1 students are facing visa and SEVIS revocations which may impact their Optional Practical Training (OPT) or Curricular Practical Training (CPT) as well as their ability to change status to H-1B status should they be “H-1B lottery winners”. (April 24 update: some revocations are being undone, but perhaps the will of foreign students to remain in the U.S. may be tested.)
- Employees traveling to the U.S. face increased scrutiny and nervousness about whether they’ll be admitted or detained.
- Employer sponsored categories may receive more scrutiny, such as H-1B visa petitions and PERM labor certifications.
- Employee and budget cutbacks at USCIS and U.S. Consulates might mean processing gets even slower (yes, that’s possible!)
Beyond all of this, the current economic situation means a recession is likely, so employers will need to dust off their COVID and 2008-09 financial crisis playbooks for how to deal with layoffs . . . and if tariff stability is not soon restored, a simple recession might be the best-case scenario.
Tune in to AoI for Strategy Planning
And on the happy note of a recession or worse, stay tuned in to the AoI page on LinkedIn or visit www.andyonimmigration.com as we have a critical discussion about how employers and immigration professionals can (and must) plan for the next 12 months in the face of sheer uncertainty. In the interim, please locate and activate your stress reduction plan or reach out to me at andy@andyonimmigration.com if you just need to vent or a shoulder to cry on. Stay well!
